A strategy can trade real money again only when all of these are true:

1. At least 100 settled trades (30 for stock and crypto sleeves).
2. Positive results after fees and spread.
3. Beats simply buying and holding over the same period.
4. Worst drop under 15%.
5. The edge is statistically clear, not luck.

Then Tyler approves a fixed dollar limit and a stop loss. Today: no strategy has passed.

What we've learned so far

• Hourly forex trend: failed the backtest (Jan 2024 to Oct 2026). Too many trades; the spread eats it.
• Hourly crypto trend: failed the backtest. Same reason.
• Stock trend filter: made money over 10 years but trailed plain buy and hold by a wide margin.
• Kalshi event contracts: no repeatable edge found in the Sept 2026 study.

Next up on paper: daily signals with a hold band, and an index with a drawdown filter.

Rory Engine picks

A separate research model from the hourly shadow watchlist further down. It scores stocks, forex, crypto and sports twice a day (8:30 PM and 6:00 AM Arizona time). A pick shows as passed only when it clears out of sample and after cost checks. Everything here is research, unvalidated, and not an order or advice.

Last run Nov 11, 8:42 PM Arizona time · night · 84 scored · 3 passed

Graded track record

Passed this run

• IWMStocks · passed checks
  SHORT · predicted -0.05% vs cost 0.05% · edge +0.00% · out of sample hit 53.3% (n=120)
• DIAStocks · passed checks
  SHORT · predicted -0.06% vs cost 0.05% · edge +0.01% · out of sample hit 56.7% (n=120)
• XLFStocks · passed checks
  SHORT · predicted -0.13% vs cost 0.05% · edge +0.08% · out of sample hit 58.3% (n=120)

Closest that did not pass

Shown for transparency. These failed a check (out of sample record, cost, or a 4 point sports edge after fees).

• AMDStocks
  no trade (model leaned long) · predicted +0.90% vs cost 0.05% · edge +0.85% · out of sample hit 50.0% (n=120)
• NVDAStocks
  no trade (model leaned long) · predicted +0.69% vs cost 0.05% · edge +0.64% · out of sample hit 50.0% (n=120)
• XLKStocks
  no trade (model leaned long) · predicted +0.32% vs cost 0.05% · edge +0.27% · out of sample hit 50.8% (n=120)
• PLTRStocks
  no trade (model leaned long) · predicted +0.28% vs cost 0.05% · edge +0.23% · out of sample hit 48.3% (n=120)
• Mercer Bears at West Virginia MountaineersSports · CBB
  no trade (priced YES MER) · Kalshi ask 2¢ vs model fair 2.7% · edge +0.6 pts
• Stetson Hatters at Howard BisonSports · CBB
  no trade (priced YES STET) · Kalshi ask 17¢ vs model fair 18.3% · edge +0.3 pts
• Montreal Canadiens at Boston BruinsSports · NHL
  no trade (priced YES MTL) · Kalshi ask 46¢ vs model fair 47.8% · edge +0.1 pts
• Loyola Marymount Lions at South Alabama JaguarsSports · CBB
  no trade (priced YES LMU) · Kalshi ask 50¢ vs model fair 51.7% · edge 0.0 pts

Today's market mood: Pretty calm.Nothing wild going on, so we play it steady.

Apple

AAPL

↑Betting it goes up

Apple · model leaning up · paper only

FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.

Microsoft

MSFT

↑Betting it goes up

Microsoft · model leaning up · paper only

FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.

Euro vs Dollar

EUR USD

↓Betting it goes down

Euro vs Dollar · model leaning down · paper only

FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.

Aussie vs Dollar

AUD USD

↓Betting it goes down

Aussie vs Dollar · model leaning down · paper only

FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.

Pound vs Dollar

GBP USD

↓Betting it goes down

Pound vs Dollar · model leaning down · paper only

FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.

5 on the shadow watchlist today. Shadow model, separate source. Paper only, no real money.

FOCS is research and education. It is not investment advice, and nothing here is an offer to buy or sell any security, currency, crypto asset or event contract. All results shown are simulated (paper) unless labeled otherwise. A small real money forex test ran in June 2026 and ended down $59 of $1,000. Its last trade closed October 28, 2026. Every strategy has run on paper only since October 24, 2026. Past or simulated results do not predict future results. Trading can lose all of the money you put in.